A year before the 2024 presidential election is ultimately decided, campaign efforts are churning at full speed after a sluggish start. The activity increase is largely because voters in the pre-Super Tuesday states will be casting their ballots earlier than ever before.

Originally, the Iowa caucuses were pinpointed for February 5, but instead, the state leaders decided to hold the event on January 15. Then, South Carolina will kick off the primaries with a Democratic contest on February 3. The New Hampshire primary, typically in February though still not firmly set, will have to move to January 23 if the state is to retain its first-in-the-nation primary status. It is unclear if President Biden will participate in the New Hampshire primary, since Granite State leaders rejected the Democratic National Committee’s alternate schedule proposal.

Nevada, now a primary for both parties but a Republican caucus for delegate apportionment, will move to February 6 (GOP caucuses slightly later). The South Carolina Republican primary will be held February 24, while the Michigan primary, a new entry into the pre-Super Tuesday schedule, is scheduled for February 27 for both parties. A total of 14 states, the American Samoa caucuses and Democrats Abroad will then vote on Super Tuesday, March 5.

Another issue is beginning to draw a great deal of attention. It relates to whether Donald Trump will be slated on state ballots, irrespective of whether he is chosen as the official Republican presidential nominee.

Some are claiming that Trump will be disqualified from running for President due to a clause in the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment. The phrase “have engaged in insurrection or rebellion” is the debate’s focal point. Some legal scholars put forth the argument that Trump committed insurrection with regard to his actions surrounding the January 6 Capitol incursion, while other equally qualified scholars maintain that the U.S. Senate found then-President Trump not guilty of insurrection during the second impeachment vote. Therefore, they say, the “rebellion or insurrection” phrase does not apply to the Trump situation.

The important U.S. Senate races are beginning to take shape.

That said, this is a debate that already appears to be winding down. Even Democratic Secretaries of State in key states such as Arizona and Michigan have said they will have no alternative but to slate Trump. Unless a top swing state such as Georgia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or any state that Trump carried in 2020 strikes his name from the ballot, this will largely become a non-issue.

The important U.S. Senate races are beginning to take shape. Democrats hold a tenuous 51-49 seat majority and the 2024 map clearly puts the Republicans in a favorable position. Of the 34 Senate races on the ballot next year, the GOP must defend only 11, and none of them are dangling at the highest vulnerability level.

Conversely, Democrats must protect three states where President Biden is virtually assured to lose: Montana, Ohio and West Virginia. The 2022 Nevada Senate race proved the closest in the nation, and the 2024 contest, featuring first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), will also likely become a top-tier GOP challenge race. Additionally, we will see a wild card three-way campaign unfold in Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema hopes to win re-election as an Independent to the seat she won five years ago under the Democratic Party banner.

There are six open Senate seats now that Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has announced he will not seek a second term in office. Of the six, four are currently in Democratic hands, with the other two held by Republicans. The Michigan race, now that former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) has joined current Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) in the open contest, will become competitive. All six, however, will feature hotly contested partisan primaries.

If Republicans are going to win a Senate majority, 2024 gives them their best opportunity for such a result. It remains to be seen if they can convert this favorable political map into tangible victories.

The House races will be close once again. Republicans hold a slight 221-212 majority, with each party having one vacancy. Both voids will be filled in November, and each party’s special-election nominee is favored to hold the respective seat.

We will see a wild card three-way campaign unfold in Arizona, where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema hopes to win re-election as an Independent.

Redistricting in places like Alabama, along with possible redraws in Louisiana, New York, Ohio and South Carolina, could result in Democrats regaining the House majority they lost in 2022. A redraw in North Carolina, however, soon to be completed, will favor Republicans and likely negate some Democratic gains.

California and New York will play a major role as to how the House races unfold. Republicans outperformed the redistricting maps in these two states by four seats apiece, and such a result provided them their slim majority.

New York Republicans must again win tough races on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley if they are to hold their majority. In California, incumbents in the state’s San Joaquin and Central Valleys, along with seats in Los Angeles and Orange Counties, are going to be difficult to hold in a presidential election year when the turnout will almost assuredly favor Democrats.

On the other hand, the Republicans seem to have California conversion opportunities in an open Orange County seat where Rep. Katie Porter (D) is now running for Senate and in Stockton where the city’s Republican Mayor, Kevin Lincoln, is forging what promises to be a highly competitive campaign against Democratic Rep. Josh Harder.

Right now, Republicans should still be slightly favored to hold the House, but the majority is clearly up for grabs. One conclusion, however, is clear: Yet again, we will see a close House majority regardless of which party assumes control.